Will Oriskany Falls have a white Christmas?
Christmas-morning snow-on-the-ground odds for Oriskany Falls, New York, on December 25, 2026.
The historical picture
The validated 1991–2020 spatial model indicates an estimated 54% chance of at least one inch of snow on the ground here on December 25—roughly 16 of 30 Christmases.
Climate period
1991–2020
Nearest station
18 mi
Place elevation
978 ft
The model retains four-station NOAA lineage; the closest is SHERBURNE (USC00307705). Boosted spatial v4 passed sealed temporal, regional and blocked-spatial validation before promotion.
Nearby major places
Frequently asked questions
- Will Oriskany Falls have a white Christmas this year?
- The current estimate is 54% for at least one inch of snow on the ground in Oriskany Falls on December 25, 2026. At this range, the estimate comes from the validated historical spatial model.
- How often does Oriskany Falls have a white Christmas?
- The validated 1991–2020 historical estimate is about 5 years in 10. It combines target-excluded nearby station history, terrain and geographic context.
- What counts as a white Christmas?
- At least one inch (2.54 cm) of snow on the ground at the Christmas-morning observation, represented here by 07:00 local time. Snow that only arrives later in the day does not meet the headline definition.