White Christmas USA
Independent US snow outlook

Historical outlook · Christmas 2026

Will it snow where you are?

Explore the odds for 32,024 cities, towns and villages plus 33,640 Census ZIP Code areas, built from a sealed-test validated NOAA/GHCN-D spatial model and sharpened by ensemble forecasts near Christmas.

Find your local outlook

124Days
08Hrs
00Min

National outlook

The Christmas snow map

11%

Typical chance

White Christmas probability by stateEach state links to its local outlook. Darker blue indicates a higher population-weighted historical chance.Alabama: 0%Alaska: 99%Arizona: 1%Arkansas: 2%California: 0%Colorado: 34%Connecticut: 18%Delaware: 7%District of Columbia: 4%Florida: 0%Georgia: 0%Hawaii: 0%Idaho: 31%Illinois: 35%Indiana: 21%Iowa: 40%Kansas: 15%Kentucky: 10%Louisiana: 0%Maine: 34%Maryland: 6%Massachusetts: 24%Michigan: 45%Minnesota: 74%Mississippi: 0%Missouri: 16%Montana: 56%Nebraska: 32%Nevada: 2%New Hampshire: 42%New Jersey: 8%New Mexico: 5%New York: 13%North Carolina: 0%North Dakota: 80%Ohio: 24%Oklahoma: 4%Oregon: 2%Pennsylvania: 12%Rhode Island: 12%South Carolina: 0%South Dakota: 55%Tennessee: 2%Texas: 1%Utah: 59%Vermont: 0%Virginia: 2%Washington: 8%West Virginia: 0%Wisconsin: 49%Wyoming: 49%
Alaska 99%
0%25%50%75%+
Population-weighted state outlookOpen detailed snow map →
The forecast desk

National ranking

Snowiest major places

  1. 01AnchorageAK99%
  2. 02BozemanMT95%
  3. 03DuluthMN93%
  4. 04Grand ForksND83%
  5. 05St. CloudMN82%
  6. 06Coon RapidsMN82%
  7. 07FargoND80%
  8. 08BlaineMN78%
  9. 09LoganUT78%
  10. 10RochesterMN77%

Around the country

Explore leading states

Alaska

Best major-city chance: Anchorage

99%

North Dakota

Best major-city chance: Grand Forks

80%

Minnesota

Best major-city chance: Duluth

74%

Utah

Best major-city chance: Logan

59%

Montana

Best major-city chance: Bozeman

56%

South Dakota

Best major-city chance: Sioux Falls

55%

Wisconsin

Best major-city chance: Eau Claire

49%

Wyoming

Best major-city chance: Casper

49%

Michigan

Best major-city chance: Lansing

45%

New Hampshire

Best major-city chance: Manchester

42%

Iowa

Best major-city chance: Dubuque

40%

Illinois

Best major-city chance: Hoffman Estates

35%

Notes from the forecast room

What's behind the number

A white Christmas has a precise American definition: at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. Every layer is evaluated against that same measurable event.

01

Official climate ground truth

The baseline begins with NOAA’s 1991–2020 Christmas Day station normals: the measured historical frequency of at least one inch of snow on the ground.

02

A local estimate for every place

Target-excluded station history is combined with USGS elevation, local relief, coast and Great Lakes context for every Census place and ZIP-area internal point.

03

Global ensembles near Christmas

Inside the medium-range window, many GEFS, ECMWF and Canadian model scenarios are tested against the same one-inch snow-depth definition.

04

Uncertainty stays visible

The historical baseline remains in control until live evidence becomes useful. Confidence increases only as Christmas enters a genuinely forecastable range.

Validation before promotion. Repaired SNODAS was tested and rejected. The station/terrain model passed untouched temporal, Census-region and blocked-spatial tests, so boosted spatial v4 is now active. See the model status.

Looking for something specific? Browse all states →