Will Tucumcari have a white Christmas?
Christmas-morning snow-on-the-ground odds for Tucumcari, New Mexico, on December 25, 2026.
The historical picture
The validated 1991–2020 spatial model indicates an estimated 8% chance of at least one inch of snow on the ground here on December 25—roughly 2 of 30 Christmases.
Climate period
1991–2020
Nearest station
2 mi
Place elevation
4,032 ft
The model retains four-station NOAA lineage; the closest is TUCUMCARI 4 NE (USC00299156). Boosted spatial v4 passed sealed temporal, regional and blocked-spatial validation before promotion.
Nearby major places
Frequently asked questions
- Will Tucumcari have a white Christmas this year?
- The current estimate is 8% for at least one inch of snow on the ground in Tucumcari on December 25, 2026. At this range, the estimate comes from the validated historical spatial model.
- How often does Tucumcari have a white Christmas?
- The validated 1991–2020 historical estimate is about 1 year in 10. It combines target-excluded nearby station history, terrain and geographic context.
- What counts as a white Christmas?
- At least one inch (2.54 cm) of snow on the ground at the Christmas-morning observation, represented here by 07:00 local time. Snow that only arrives later in the day does not meet the headline definition.