Will Grand Marais have a white Christmas?
Christmas-morning snow-on-the-ground odds for Grand Marais, Michigan, on December 25, 2026.
The historical picture
The validated 1991–2020 spatial model indicates an estimated 87% chance of at least one inch of snow on the ground here on December 25—roughly 26 of 30 Christmases.
Climate period
1991–2020
Nearest station
35 mi
Place elevation
600 ft
The model retains four-station NOAA lineage; the closest is TAHQUAMENON FALLS SP (USC00208043). Boosted spatial v4 passed sealed temporal, regional and blocked-spatial validation before promotion.
Nearby major places
Frequently asked questions
- Will Grand Marais have a white Christmas this year?
- The current estimate is 87% for at least one inch of snow on the ground in Grand Marais on December 25, 2026. At this range, the estimate comes from the validated historical spatial model.
- How often does Grand Marais have a white Christmas?
- The validated 1991–2020 historical estimate is about 9 years in 10. It combines target-excluded nearby station history, terrain and geographic context.
- What counts as a white Christmas?
- At least one inch (2.54 cm) of snow on the ground at the Christmas-morning observation, represented here by 07:00 local time. Snow that only arrives later in the day does not meet the headline definition.