Will St. Mary's have a white Christmas?
Christmas-morning snow-on-the-ground odds for St. Mary's, Alaska, on December 25, 2026.
The historical picture
The validated 1991–2020 spatial model indicates an estimated 99% chance of at least one inch of snow on the ground here on December 25—roughly 30 of 30 Christmases.
Climate period
1991–2020
Nearest station
100 mi
Place elevation
486 ft
The model retains four-station NOAA lineage; the closest is BETHEL AP GSN (USW00026615). Boosted spatial v4 passed sealed temporal, regional and blocked-spatial validation before promotion.
Nearby major places
Frequently asked questions
- Will St. Mary's have a white Christmas this year?
- The current estimate is 99% for at least one inch of snow on the ground in St. Mary's on December 25, 2026. At this range, the estimate comes from the validated historical spatial model.
- How often does St. Mary's have a white Christmas?
- The validated 1991–2020 historical estimate is almost every year. It combines target-excluded nearby station history, terrain and geographic context.
- What counts as a white Christmas?
- At least one inch (2.54 cm) of snow on the ground at the Christmas-morning observation, represented here by 07:00 local time. Snow that only arrives later in the day does not meet the headline definition.