Will Warm Spring Creek have a white Christmas?
Christmas-morning snow-on-the-ground odds for Warm Spring Creek, Montana, on December 25, 2026.
The historical picture
The validated 1991–2020 spatial model indicates an estimated 67% chance of at least one inch of snow on the ground here on December 25—roughly 20 of 30 Christmases.
Climate period
1991–2020
Nearest station
25 mi
Place elevation
4,436 ft
The model retains four-station NOAA lineage; the closest is GRASS RANGE (USC00243727). Boosted spatial v4 passed sealed temporal, regional and blocked-spatial validation before promotion.
Nearby major places
Frequently asked questions
- Will Warm Spring Creek have a white Christmas this year?
- The current estimate is 67% for at least one inch of snow on the ground in Warm Spring Creek on December 25, 2026. At this range, the estimate comes from the validated historical spatial model.
- How often does Warm Spring Creek have a white Christmas?
- The validated 1991–2020 historical estimate is about 7 years in 10. It combines target-excluded nearby station history, terrain and geographic context.
- What counts as a white Christmas?
- At least one inch (2.54 cm) of snow on the ground at the Christmas-morning observation, represented here by 07:00 local time. Snow that only arrives later in the day does not meet the headline definition.